Chiefs of Staff Committee, COS(46)765(JPC(46)11): 'Appreciation on the strategic value of India to the British Commonwealth of Nations', final paper, to be submitted to the Commander-in-Chief for approval. The objects of the paper are to appreciate the value of India to the British Empire, and to set out the strategic advantages and disadvantages should India become an independent sovereign state outside the Commonwealth.
The disadvantages of an independent India are listed as follows: the possibility of interference with the supply of oil from the Persian Gulf if India was dominated by Russia; the difficulty of maintaining air communications between Arabia and Africa on the one side, and Burma, Malaya, Australia and New Zealand on the other, without the use of bases in India; and the reduction in the value of Ceylon as a base if India were hostile. There are also the positive advantages dependent upon India's membership of the Commonwealth: the importance of India as a base for successful operations in South-East Asia; the enormous asset to the Commonwealth armed forces of Indian manpower; and the increasing usefulness of India's natural resources and industrial capacity. The only advantage to be seen in the existence of an independent India is that it would relieve British manpower commitments.
The Committee concludes that it is impossible to guarantee that an independent India would not be unfriendly or would not be influenced by a power such as Russia, China or Japan, hostile to the Commonwealth; and if such a situation arose, it would be impossible to move freely by sea and air in the northern part of the Indian Ocean area, which is of supreme importance to the Commonwealth. Typescript.